Comments on Mastersball: Todd’s View on Scarcity

Thanks, Todd!

2009-01-13T13:38:00.000-08:00

Thanks, Todd!

Slasher - please check your e-mail

2009-01-13T12:56:00.000-08:00

Slasher - please check your e-mail

No dice, I tried to register on the site again and...

2009-01-13T00:07:00.000-08:00

No dice, I tried to register on the site again and it said I was already registered (but have not received authentication mail). Then I tried to email your support and received the following bounce back. Sorry to post all this crap in the comments of an awesome blog topic. Not sure how else to reach you...note: I stripped some of the HTML so I could post this comment. All < are listed as !

This is an automatically generated Delivery Status Notification

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support@mastersball.com

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Google tried to deliver your message, but it was rejected by the recipient domain. We recommend contacting the other email provider for further information about the cause of this error. The error that the other server returned was: 550 550 sorry, mail to that recipient is not accepted (#5.7.1) (state 14).

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I registered for your site, but never received an email back providing a
generated password to authenticate me. When I tried to re-register my email
address, I received an error stating that user name already existed. Checked
the junk mail filters for your mail as well. Can you help?

I am looking forward to reading your future though...

2009-01-12T23:54:00.000-08:00

I am looking forward to reading your future thoughts on this topic. I am of the camp that does not believe in positional scarcity - as of about three years ago (being ahead of the curve can be painful too!). I believe more in statistical scaricity, although I agree there is positional scarcity at C.

I am willing to believe it in, particularly because I value your opinion, but one needs to balance the cost/benefit. In the end, you are layering a simple argument (HRs) proof on top of a complex statistical set (five categories). In many ways, you acknowledge this reality. It is inexcapable that a HR is a HR and a SB is a SB, irregardless of source. They all count the same...

In reality, as you note, there are six pools (players, seven if you have DH requirement) on top of five pools (statitistics, HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG) of statistics. You can take two approaches to this. You can let the pool of six dictate how you invest in the pool of five (the application of positional scaricity) or you can let the pool of five dictate how you invest in the pool of six.

If we decide to take the later approach, and we determine R are not commodity statistic, and we realize I can acquire 90+ runs from 15 OF, but only 6 2B, 6 SS, or 2 C, then I gain more of an advantage by taking those players prior to the competition, particularly if I take those players available at C, 2B, or SS. I argue these are the picks in the 3, 4, 5, 6 rounds that differentiate teams...

Back to positional scarcity...Taking streaming of catchers out, I would argue there are about 18 catchers who are of positive value to a fantasy team. Of those 18, only six will offer a significant positive impact to my team. Hence, your argument is valid for catchers...as long as the cost of acquiring that catcher does not outweigh the value of owning that player.

It would be interesting to see your thoughts on what round this switch takes place. I see the value switch happening in round 4 of a 10 team league when it comes to catchers. In my early read of 2009, I see the approach of taking best available for the first three rounds - with particular value on speed / power combos of the IF variety based on prior notes - then taking a catcher in the fourth round while other owners are wasting picks on closers. :)

It is dangerous to focus on positional scarcity w/o first understanding how you want to build your team, a position I've seen you advocate on this site, yet it still escapes many owners.

Who the catcher is, well that is another argument. I would probably lean toward Martin because he offers speed, a scarce statistical category that I am addressing via a scarce positional category. Double the impact, no? I would assume you are of similar thoughts seeing your previously posted draft results.

NO ONE can acquire that advantage at the C position, and I would argue I can make up the commodity stats - 10 HRs, 20 RBIs, .040 average - later in the draft much more easily than other owners can pickup the scarse stats - runs and steals - later in the draft.

Specifically, this gap can be made up elsewhere while five other teams grabbing good catchers (cause we are assuming in this argument the other four owners are already DOA) will struggle trying to exclipse the 20 run and 20 SB advantage I just landed with Martin.

Maybe I am wrong. Happy to be proven that way in future posts! :) Go VIPER!!!

PS - I am having trouble posting comments. The word verification image is not showing up in Safari. Also tried to register recently and received an bounce back error. I will try one more time now...

Excellent post.

2009-01-08T15:15:00.000-08:00

Excellent post.

I thank you for the reference to our conversation ...

2009-01-07T20:53:00.000-08:00

I thank you for the reference to our conversation at the Washington first pitch forum.