Yeah, I know, I’m not the only one, this is far from an original thought, but the saves category bugs me, and for whatever reason, even more so this year. I think I know the reason, and it has to do with what I enjoy about the hobby, what I personally considering challenging and how handling saves is a polar opposite in terms of philosophy. I’ll try to refrain from using the word ”lucky” too much, as my thoughts transcend the pure luck element of saves and the associated strategy, but it will no doubt rear its ugly head.
To best explain my discomfort with saves as a rotisserie category, it is best if I start at the beginning and discuss my overall approach to the game, what is fun and challenging for me and why I keep coming back for more every year.
It all starts with player projection, trying to predict future performance based on past historical trends, spiced up with some scouting. Next is putting a value on those statistics, on both a micro and macro scale. Then the real challenge is taking those units of value and constructing a team using elements of game theory to devise your strategy. And finally, there is the day to day managing of your squad in an effort to maximize your points.
I wholeheartedly admit I completely favor the first three elements with the last, in-season management being a distant fourth on my enjoyment scale, for a variety of reasons. This is likely the reason I usually fare better in deeper leagues as opposed to the shallower mixed leagues.
The primary issue I have with saves is there is practically no element to their strategy that meshes with what I find fun and challenging and their inclusion introduces too much, okay I’ll say it, luck.
Granted, an important part of your global strategy is how you wish to approach saves. Perhaps too simplistically, you have 4 choices.
A. Invest in the top-tier closers with elite skills
B. Invest a little less but still get a closer with a full-time job, but with a less-than-elite skill set
C. Throw darts into the group of closers that have the job but do not have the skill set to success long term or lack experience so it is not clear if they can handle the mental side of the position
D. Go the totally speculative route, both at the draft/auction and into the season
So yeah, I like strategy and there is some level of strategy necessary to decide which route you wish to pursue. But the reason this strategy even exists is at the root of my problem with saves – projecting them is largely a crapshoot, with the key being it is even more so than compared to other categories such as wins, runs and RBI, all three of which also have factors out of control of the player that affect the performance projection to a pretty large degree.
Here is what we know “scientifically”. Most teams win between 70 and 100 games and most teams have 45%-55% of their victories saved. So the worst team can be expected to get between 32 and 39 saves while the best team can be penciled in for 45 to 55. The rest is pretty much a crapshoot. Do you just split the difference and project each team to have 50% of their wins saved? How do you partition those, as even the best teams have other relievers pick up a save or two? Some have tried to come up with a more scientific manner to distribute saves based on how many close games they feel the team will play, etc., but there is no year-to-year correlation and no way to predict it if there was, so the best we have is figuring each team will have half its games saved, plus or minus ten percent.
My personal way of dealing with this is to assume all full time closers will get the same number of saves and to use their peripheral stats to rank and value. It lets me sleep at night, but I am bothered by the relatively unscientific nature saves are allocated.
But this is not really the problem. If you tell me I have to go through this exercise with 30 players, one per team, I would be fine with that. I would tier the closers, give 45 saves to everyone in the first tier, 37 to those in the second tier and 30 to those in the third tier and call it a day.
But of course, that is not the case. Teams having multiple relievers assume the closing role over the course of the season is the rule, not the exception. And is there is no real scientific way of first identifying the candidates and second, divvying up the saves. Yes, it is perfectly reasonable to have suggested Kevin Gregg will lose the job to Carlos Marmol, or Brandon Lyon to Fernando Rodney or Huston Street to Manny Corpas. But truthfully, anyone who claims they KNEW it would happen by such and such a date is full of it. They may have hoped it would, or thought it might, but there is no scientific means of setting the date – and my enjoyment and challenge of the hobby is at least trying to maximize the scientific nature of projection theory, valuation theory and game theory. Projecting saves flies in the face of all that. Your opinion may differ, and that’s obviously fine.
But that is not where my angst ends. Because of the singular nature of the category, acquiring saves from an unexpected source can make a huge difference in the standings. Is there really a skill in drafting Ryan Franklin with your last reserve pick? Was that any more skillful than drafting Leo Nunez? Was there any skill in throwing a buck at Todd Coffey or picking up Julian Tavarez or Joe Beimel? Is this really challenging? Is this really fun? Is this really what you want to decide, or at minimum affect your league’s standings?
Before I go on, trust me, I understand completely there are other huge elements of happenstance that go beyond saves. My contention is the same exists for saves, but to a greater degree -- a much greater degree. And this degree has reached a point that is has sucked some of the fun out of the game for me. The frustration has begun to challenge the enjoyment. I am beginning to wonder if all the pre-season effort to project players, value/rank players then assemble a team is even worth it. Don’t fret, I said BEGINNING TO WONDER. I am pretty sure I will not be announcing my retirement anytime soon because I am up to here with the saves category.
That said, I come from the school that says don’t bitch about something unless you have a solution. So here’s my solution – TEAM SAVES. Yes, team saves. You draft a team, and if anyone on that team gets a save, you get a save. You don’t get anything else, just a save. And if you own the player that recorded the save, tough shinola, only team saves get scored.
But that’s not all. Obviously, a player like Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon should still have some serious fantasy value, beyond that of just their excellent peripherals. If you take saves away, their relative fantasy value is no longer commensurate with their real baseball value. So we need a way to pump up their value a bit. That is why I suggest weighting team saves at .5 and using a 6th category, also with a weight of .5 that benefits the better closers, either K/9 or K/BB, with K/9 being my personal favorite. Doing this still gives decent value to the better relievers. In fact, it is probably fairer that the present system as a superior set-up man would be more valuable than an inferior closer, with saves removed from the equation.
I need to ruminate on this one a little further and perhaps run some numbers, but an additional improvement might be to replace wins with innings pitched. My thinking is using team saves and K/9 to encompass a category may lead to the ‘mostly reliever’ strategy. Going with innings would increase the value of a middling starter versus a middling reliever. I have no issue with teams using talented relievers. I would have an issue if this system took away the science of evaluating the middle to lower tier of pitching.
So there you have it. If I were King, I would eliminate the saves category as it exists now, use team saves and K/9, each at ½ weights. I would also likely replace wins with innings pitched. The overall effect would be to remove an element of the hobby I find frustrating, dealing with the fickle and downright unpredictable nature of saves, while minimally impacting the value of closers and altering global strategy.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Thank you from Mastersball
We recently sent this note out to our registrants:
On behalf of Gary Jennison, JP Kastner, Lawr Michaels and me, Todd Zola, we would like to thank you for making us part of your fantasy baseball experience for the 2009 season. Special thanks go out to those of you that have become regular forum readers and contributors. And our warmest heartfelt appreciation goes to those who trusted us with their hard-earned income in these rough economic times, becoming a Platinum subscription member.
Some of you may be wondering what our plans are short and long term. To be honest, our long term plans are still a work in progress as we continue to establish our identity on the fantasy landscape. For 2009, our goal is somewhat modest, focusing on getting as much analytical and strategic content out to our readers as possible, including weekly in-season updated projections, at a price point we felt was unmatched in the industry. In the future we look forward to expanding to continue to meet customer needs, but maintaining our core missions - providing top analytical and strategic content while being the best fantasy baseball value on the market. As the spring turns into summer and we get a better handle on our capabilities and hone in on the specific type of content we wish to provide going forward, we will look to first recruit from our loyal legion of registrants so stay tuned for details if have an interest in joining the Mastersball staff.
In the short term, we have three primary objectives. The first is reorganization of the public message forum, in an effort to stimulate discussion of some of the current events aspects of our hobby, such as player performance, injuries, revolving closer situations and minor league call-ups. To that end, we will rename the General Fantasy Baseball Topics Forum and call it Player News and Analysis. The intent is for the discussion to focus on players in a general sense, without specific reference to one’s own team. We will then have a separate forum for specific team advice. The Trade and Potential Trade, Keeper List Feedback and Rate my Team forums will thus be consolidated into an all-encompassing Team Management Advice forum. Initially, we will go forth with these two forums but if the need ensues, we will adjust as necessary, for example breaking the Player News and Analysis forum into separate AL and NL section. A new set of forums will be created, dedicated to
questions, comments and discussions pertaining to site content, for both Platinum and publicly available material. An off-topic forum will also be available, called The Water Cooler, in which our community can talk about anything they want, so long as it is not fantasy baseball related. All of the present discussions will be directed to the appropriate forum. Once this reorganization is finished, I will get the ball rolling and make an effort to start the newsy type threads, hoping those wanting to contribute their two cents will feel comfortable in doing so. You know, sort of like putting the feeder five into my tip jar. Before long, others will hopefully follow suit and post news items as they hear them. Something to keep in mind that if you are in fact interested in joining the Mastersball team, the best way to ‘audition’ is via message board participation. Long time Mastersball followers can confirm this, as this was my initial introduction to Gary and more recently
Shawn Carey, our Minor League consultant.
The second focus will be the blog. We are efforting expanding the cast of contributors. We hope to have an announcement soon.
The other concentration will be making the front page of the site a portal of sort, a place where we can announce the posting of Platinum content as well as link the free content we produce that can be found on such sites as mlb.com, SI.com and CREATiVESPORTS.com. We will also announce radio and podcast appearances. The present plans include producing three publicly available pieces of content each week. The first will be the 2-start pitching rundown I do for mlb.com, posted sometime each weekend. The second will be a weekly strategy column, possibly to be part of the fantasy content at SI.com, but even if not, it will definitely be posted at www.CREATiVESPORTS.com. The final offering is back via popular request and will be free this season, as we will be preparing a review of the likely available free agents in common leagues, which will definitely be posted each weekend at www.CREATiVESPORTS.com. Beginning this week, links to the above as well as other site announcements and
news will be available from our home page, as well as the aforementioned message forum for comments, questions and discussion regarding this specific material.
For our Platinum subscribers, again, I simply cannot thank you enough, not just for your patronage and trust, but also for your patience and understanding as we literally put this together on the fly. I completely realize that as hard as I long for the good old days where all I had to do was write a couple of pieces a week and have some fun on the message board, as soon as we accepted one penny from one subscriber, we made the leap into a business and thus we need to respect that and treat it accordingly. Starting next weekend, we will unveil our advertised in-season content, which includes weekly updated rest-of-year projections for everyone appearing in the Majors as well as year-to-date values for common leagues. This week we will also start the daily posting of our Player and Team Tracker, which some of you may know as ZIDDY. And even though we feel this content was a great value for the price point, Gary and I have decided that we each should produce some additional
subscriber content on a consistent basis. To that end we will post an article three times a week, accessible only to our Platinum subscribers. It will be somewhat free-form, commenting on whatever moves us that particular day. The bulk will be fantasy baseball oriented, but I have been known to get tangential at times and Gary has never been shy to float an opinion on whatever touches a nerve. We will provide the exact details early in the week on the site’s home page.
Once again, please accept our sincere gratitude for helping to make the resurrection of Mastersball a success. With your continued support and guidance, we strive to carve out a special niche in this wonderful industry. Thanks for hopping along for the ride.
Todd Zola, aka the Forum Funklord
On behalf of Gary Jennison, JP Kastner, Lawr Michaels and me, Todd Zola, we would like to thank you for making us part of your fantasy baseball experience for the 2009 season. Special thanks go out to those of you that have become regular forum readers and contributors. And our warmest heartfelt appreciation goes to those who trusted us with their hard-earned income in these rough economic times, becoming a Platinum subscription member.
Some of you may be wondering what our plans are short and long term. To be honest, our long term plans are still a work in progress as we continue to establish our identity on the fantasy landscape. For 2009, our goal is somewhat modest, focusing on getting as much analytical and strategic content out to our readers as possible, including weekly in-season updated projections, at a price point we felt was unmatched in the industry. In the future we look forward to expanding to continue to meet customer needs, but maintaining our core missions - providing top analytical and strategic content while being the best fantasy baseball value on the market. As the spring turns into summer and we get a better handle on our capabilities and hone in on the specific type of content we wish to provide going forward, we will look to first recruit from our loyal legion of registrants so stay tuned for details if have an interest in joining the Mastersball staff.
In the short term, we have three primary objectives. The first is reorganization of the public message forum, in an effort to stimulate discussion of some of the current events aspects of our hobby, such as player performance, injuries, revolving closer situations and minor league call-ups. To that end, we will rename the General Fantasy Baseball Topics Forum and call it Player News and Analysis. The intent is for the discussion to focus on players in a general sense, without specific reference to one’s own team. We will then have a separate forum for specific team advice. The Trade and Potential Trade, Keeper List Feedback and Rate my Team forums will thus be consolidated into an all-encompassing Team Management Advice forum. Initially, we will go forth with these two forums but if the need ensues, we will adjust as necessary, for example breaking the Player News and Analysis forum into separate AL and NL section. A new set of forums will be created, dedicated to
questions, comments and discussions pertaining to site content, for both Platinum and publicly available material. An off-topic forum will also be available, called The Water Cooler, in which our community can talk about anything they want, so long as it is not fantasy baseball related. All of the present discussions will be directed to the appropriate forum. Once this reorganization is finished, I will get the ball rolling and make an effort to start the newsy type threads, hoping those wanting to contribute their two cents will feel comfortable in doing so. You know, sort of like putting the feeder five into my tip jar. Before long, others will hopefully follow suit and post news items as they hear them. Something to keep in mind that if you are in fact interested in joining the Mastersball team, the best way to ‘audition’ is via message board participation. Long time Mastersball followers can confirm this, as this was my initial introduction to Gary and more recently
Shawn Carey, our Minor League consultant.
The second focus will be the blog. We are efforting expanding the cast of contributors. We hope to have an announcement soon.
The other concentration will be making the front page of the site a portal of sort, a place where we can announce the posting of Platinum content as well as link the free content we produce that can be found on such sites as mlb.com, SI.com and CREATiVESPORTS.com. We will also announce radio and podcast appearances. The present plans include producing three publicly available pieces of content each week. The first will be the 2-start pitching rundown I do for mlb.com, posted sometime each weekend. The second will be a weekly strategy column, possibly to be part of the fantasy content at SI.com, but even if not, it will definitely be posted at www.CREATiVESPORTS.com. The final offering is back via popular request and will be free this season, as we will be preparing a review of the likely available free agents in common leagues, which will definitely be posted each weekend at www.CREATiVESPORTS.com. Beginning this week, links to the above as well as other site announcements and
news will be available from our home page, as well as the aforementioned message forum for comments, questions and discussion regarding this specific material.
For our Platinum subscribers, again, I simply cannot thank you enough, not just for your patronage and trust, but also for your patience and understanding as we literally put this together on the fly. I completely realize that as hard as I long for the good old days where all I had to do was write a couple of pieces a week and have some fun on the message board, as soon as we accepted one penny from one subscriber, we made the leap into a business and thus we need to respect that and treat it accordingly. Starting next weekend, we will unveil our advertised in-season content, which includes weekly updated rest-of-year projections for everyone appearing in the Majors as well as year-to-date values for common leagues. This week we will also start the daily posting of our Player and Team Tracker, which some of you may know as ZIDDY. And even though we feel this content was a great value for the price point, Gary and I have decided that we each should produce some additional
subscriber content on a consistent basis. To that end we will post an article three times a week, accessible only to our Platinum subscribers. It will be somewhat free-form, commenting on whatever moves us that particular day. The bulk will be fantasy baseball oriented, but I have been known to get tangential at times and Gary has never been shy to float an opinion on whatever touches a nerve. We will provide the exact details early in the week on the site’s home page.
Once again, please accept our sincere gratitude for helping to make the resurrection of Mastersball a success. With your continued support and guidance, we strive to carve out a special niche in this wonderful industry. Thanks for hopping along for the ride.
Todd Zola, aka the Forum Funklord
Friday, April 10, 2009
The Hedge and The Stand
A recent piece by Baseball HQ’s Ron Shandler brought to light something I have been thinking a lot about this spring. Not so ironically, I have done so directly because of a clever exercise Ron included on this year’s First Pitch Forum series. Ron suggested one way to orchestrate a projection is to come up with a set of possible outcomes and attach a probability each will occur. The final projection is then a weighted average of the varying possibilities. We did this using Ian Snell and Andruw Jones. Each had three possible scenarios – a recent solid season, a recent poor season and something in between.
As I expected (your mileage may vary), the final result in all 7 cities for both players can best be described as a hedge. The vast majority of attendees voted for the middle projection with some talking a stand good or bad. The good and bad basically cancelled each other out so the final results were pretty similar, with some variance because the good and bad were not exactly equal in each venue.
Here is what I have been thinking about. Let us say I fall on either extreme. What do you want, the extreme to be the published projection? A weighted average where the extreme is the majority of the calculation, but there is enough there to hedge the final number a bit closer to the middle? In a perfect world, my personal choice would be to take a stand, not hedge and publish what I think will happen, and then verbalize any hedge in an associated profile or analysis piece. But I am not naïve, I realize some customers utilize solely the projections and really do not incorporate the corresponding supporting material. So the projection has to be as useful as possible, as a standalone entity.
So what did we do? I would like to think we took a stand, at least in terms of playing time. Our projection model and philosophy does not lend itself to going out on a limb with a significant increase or decrease in skills. We allow for some subjectivity but rigorously build as much of what others consider personal touches into our foundational basis. Playing time, however, is a good deal subjective, with history serving as a strong guide.
Ron’s piece is entitled Pundits on Parade and is his annual comparison of projections for players chose by his subscribers. Mastersball was included in the group of sites surveyed.
Brandon Wood was one of the subjects, and we came in with a lowly projection of .237 with 4 HR in 93 AB. The next lowest total of at bats was 247 with 409 leading the pack. Ron’s comment was the following:
Perhaps the most fascinating subject on this list, it's almost all about playing time. And clearly, the most gutsy projection is from Mastersball's Todd Zola. That says to us, "yes, there's a playing time crunch in the Angels infield, but it's going to take more than a .237 BA to squeeze into it."
Well, that was EXACTLY my thought process. Might a hedge have been better, to at least get him on the radar, as he does have some potential, especially when it comes to power? Perhaps, but I kept looking at that .237. In order to project more playing time, I would need to justify an improved level of performance, but I could just not do so, even with a strong spring. I just didn’t see it, so I left the average at .237 and thus concluded that barring an injury to an infielder, and perhaps two as Erick Aybar and Robb Quinlan are ahead in Angels’ pecking order, Wood’s performance is not going to warrant regular playing time. So I took a stand.
Another interesting comparison was David Purcey. We have him sporting a rather ugly 4.91/1.40 line, but over a relatively high innings total of 165. Ron’s comment was
Mastersball gives a lot of innings to a near-5.00 ERA
Yes, we do. But when assigning innings to the Toronto staff, I asked myself if not Purcey, then who? With McGowan and Marcum on the shelf, and no confidence that Matt Clement would complete his comeback, we needed to account for someone eating those innings. So Purcey was projected for what I see as a reasonable total, think of it as 33 starts with an average of 5 innings per outing. Perhaps not as strong as a stand as with Wood, but an outlying opinion nonetheless.
As a site, we are admittedly growing when it comes to projections. I am personally most comfortable with taking a stand, presenting what I honestly feel will occur, even if it means a whole lot of site disciples perhaps miss a Brandon Wood breakout or maybe suffer through another middling campaign from Delmon Young. That said, the other thing I have been thinking about a lot this spring is how frustrating it is to work so diligently on the objective projection base, flavor it with some justifiable subjective adjustment, then throw darts at a playing time board. But we do have some ideas in mind to help mitigate this, at least partially anyway.
As I expected (your mileage may vary), the final result in all 7 cities for both players can best be described as a hedge. The vast majority of attendees voted for the middle projection with some talking a stand good or bad. The good and bad basically cancelled each other out so the final results were pretty similar, with some variance because the good and bad were not exactly equal in each venue.
Here is what I have been thinking about. Let us say I fall on either extreme. What do you want, the extreme to be the published projection? A weighted average where the extreme is the majority of the calculation, but there is enough there to hedge the final number a bit closer to the middle? In a perfect world, my personal choice would be to take a stand, not hedge and publish what I think will happen, and then verbalize any hedge in an associated profile or analysis piece. But I am not naïve, I realize some customers utilize solely the projections and really do not incorporate the corresponding supporting material. So the projection has to be as useful as possible, as a standalone entity.
So what did we do? I would like to think we took a stand, at least in terms of playing time. Our projection model and philosophy does not lend itself to going out on a limb with a significant increase or decrease in skills. We allow for some subjectivity but rigorously build as much of what others consider personal touches into our foundational basis. Playing time, however, is a good deal subjective, with history serving as a strong guide.
Ron’s piece is entitled Pundits on Parade and is his annual comparison of projections for players chose by his subscribers. Mastersball was included in the group of sites surveyed.
Brandon Wood was one of the subjects, and we came in with a lowly projection of .237 with 4 HR in 93 AB. The next lowest total of at bats was 247 with 409 leading the pack. Ron’s comment was the following:
Perhaps the most fascinating subject on this list, it's almost all about playing time. And clearly, the most gutsy projection is from Mastersball's Todd Zola. That says to us, "yes, there's a playing time crunch in the Angels infield, but it's going to take more than a .237 BA to squeeze into it."
Well, that was EXACTLY my thought process. Might a hedge have been better, to at least get him on the radar, as he does have some potential, especially when it comes to power? Perhaps, but I kept looking at that .237. In order to project more playing time, I would need to justify an improved level of performance, but I could just not do so, even with a strong spring. I just didn’t see it, so I left the average at .237 and thus concluded that barring an injury to an infielder, and perhaps two as Erick Aybar and Robb Quinlan are ahead in Angels’ pecking order, Wood’s performance is not going to warrant regular playing time. So I took a stand.
Another interesting comparison was David Purcey. We have him sporting a rather ugly 4.91/1.40 line, but over a relatively high innings total of 165. Ron’s comment was
Mastersball gives a lot of innings to a near-5.00 ERA
Yes, we do. But when assigning innings to the Toronto staff, I asked myself if not Purcey, then who? With McGowan and Marcum on the shelf, and no confidence that Matt Clement would complete his comeback, we needed to account for someone eating those innings. So Purcey was projected for what I see as a reasonable total, think of it as 33 starts with an average of 5 innings per outing. Perhaps not as strong as a stand as with Wood, but an outlying opinion nonetheless.
As a site, we are admittedly growing when it comes to projections. I am personally most comfortable with taking a stand, presenting what I honestly feel will occur, even if it means a whole lot of site disciples perhaps miss a Brandon Wood breakout or maybe suffer through another middling campaign from Delmon Young. That said, the other thing I have been thinking about a lot this spring is how frustrating it is to work so diligently on the objective projection base, flavor it with some justifiable subjective adjustment, then throw darts at a playing time board. But we do have some ideas in mind to help mitigate this, at least partially anyway.
Monday, April 6, 2009
I'm back!!
Long time, no see.
Now that the bulk of the subscriber content is finished, I can get back to what I like doing most, sharing my thoughts, some baseball, some maybe not.
Opening day is special, no question. I've been watching the game for almost 40 years, but my favorite opening day memory is recent. But then, some that have been watching the game since 1919 would say the same, Red Sox opening day, 2005, the ring ceremony.
Three memories remain the most vivid.
1. Hearing a rumor that the then Super Bowl champion Patriots would make an appearance and spotting a bunch of shoes underneath the American flag that draped over the entire Green Monster and realizing the two champions would indeed share the same field. When they lifted the flag and the Patriots emerged, the goosebumps were rampant.
2. Noting the entire Yankees team on the top step of the visitor's dugout, respectfully watching the ceremony.
3. After the team had received their rings, the music was building to a crescendo and "LAST BUT NOT LEAST" appeared on the video scoreboard -- my section started chanting "Theo, Theo". I turned to the guy next to me and said, "Nah, not his style." He said "then who, Pedro? I laughed and said, "you'll see..."
I was right, and Johnny Pesky finally got his World Series Championship ring. My goosebumps got goosebumps.
REPEAT AFTER ME -- It's only one day.
And no, we are not going to change Felipe Lopez' projection.
But I do own him on almost every team.
Hey, we projected Emilio Bonifacio to hit a homer this season and we were right!!!
Obviously by the opening thought, I am a Boston fan, but trust me, this is honestly an unbiased warning to all those pundits handing the NL MVP to Manny Ramirez. He is not going to carry over the production he had for 2 months for an entire season. He is going to go through stretches like that, for sure. But he will also go through a couple of spells where he looks lost, pulling off the ball, his lead shoulder flying.
He will break the slump by going the other way with authority, at which point you can expect him to get in a zone. The end result will be a typical Manny season, .300-35-100. Nice, but not MVP. Not in the same league as Albert, sorry.
I finally signed up for the MLB channel. Good thing I waited, I would have never been able to do the weekly projection updates otherwise.
Am I the only one who believes the football hosts on the Sirius-XM football station absolutely blow away the baseball hosts on the Sirius-XM baseball stations?
Gotta run, I have some games to watch....FINALLY!!!!!!
Now that the bulk of the subscriber content is finished, I can get back to what I like doing most, sharing my thoughts, some baseball, some maybe not.
Opening day is special, no question. I've been watching the game for almost 40 years, but my favorite opening day memory is recent. But then, some that have been watching the game since 1919 would say the same, Red Sox opening day, 2005, the ring ceremony.
Three memories remain the most vivid.
1. Hearing a rumor that the then Super Bowl champion Patriots would make an appearance and spotting a bunch of shoes underneath the American flag that draped over the entire Green Monster and realizing the two champions would indeed share the same field. When they lifted the flag and the Patriots emerged, the goosebumps were rampant.
2. Noting the entire Yankees team on the top step of the visitor's dugout, respectfully watching the ceremony.
3. After the team had received their rings, the music was building to a crescendo and "LAST BUT NOT LEAST" appeared on the video scoreboard -- my section started chanting "Theo, Theo". I turned to the guy next to me and said, "Nah, not his style." He said "then who, Pedro? I laughed and said, "you'll see..."
I was right, and Johnny Pesky finally got his World Series Championship ring. My goosebumps got goosebumps.
REPEAT AFTER ME -- It's only one day.
And no, we are not going to change Felipe Lopez' projection.
But I do own him on almost every team.
Hey, we projected Emilio Bonifacio to hit a homer this season and we were right!!!
Obviously by the opening thought, I am a Boston fan, but trust me, this is honestly an unbiased warning to all those pundits handing the NL MVP to Manny Ramirez. He is not going to carry over the production he had for 2 months for an entire season. He is going to go through stretches like that, for sure. But he will also go through a couple of spells where he looks lost, pulling off the ball, his lead shoulder flying.
He will break the slump by going the other way with authority, at which point you can expect him to get in a zone. The end result will be a typical Manny season, .300-35-100. Nice, but not MVP. Not in the same league as Albert, sorry.
I finally signed up for the MLB channel. Good thing I waited, I would have never been able to do the weekly projection updates otherwise.
Am I the only one who believes the football hosts on the Sirius-XM football station absolutely blow away the baseball hosts on the Sirius-XM baseball stations?
Gotta run, I have some games to watch....FINALLY!!!!!!
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