Mastersball 2.0

We simply could not wait another minute! Instead of building a fully functional website with all the bells and whistles, we decided to launch once the core functions were working. It is too close to the start of the season to do otherwise. Our hard-core readers expect nothing less.

Over the next couple of weeks, you will see many changes. Take a look and see what we have done so far:

http://www.mastersball.com

In the mean time, you can register on the site by clicking on the “Create an Account” link under the login box. This will open a window that allows you to create an account. After you enter some basic information and click the "Register" button, an E-mail will be sent to verify you are who you say you are. You will need to click on a link in that e-mail before logging on. It is not that we don’t trust you; we just don’t want any hoodlums.

When you create an account on the Mastersball site, it automatically creates one on the Mastersball Forum with the same user name and password. The forum is brand new and we need you to break it in.

You can go straight to the forum by either clicking the Forum icon on the top menu or by going straight to the forum at http://forum.mastersball.com. You cannot create an account on the forum separately from the main Mastersball site.

If you discover something not working, you can send an e-mail to support@mastersball.com. Keep in mind that there is going to be construction going on.

Thank you for being a loyal reader while we finish construction.

Todd's Team in the NFBC Champion's League I

Every December, Greg Ambrosius, founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship recruits 15 NFBC winners from the previous season. Greg also is the editor for Krause Publications Fantasy Sports Magazine and this draft gets published in their first fantasy baseball magazine. In addition, the league gets played out during the season under standard NFBC rules. I back-doored my way into this loaded field by winning a high stakes NFBC NL-only auction league. I readily admit I am not nearly as polished a drafter as some of the upper echelon gamers that field competitive teams year after year. But I believe I have finally cracked the code and plan to change that this season. We'll see.

I had the 12th pick and really was not targeting any one player, more hoping someone I liked in the top-10 would fall to me. I have already discussed my top-6 previously (Hanley, Reyes, A-Rod, Wright, Pujols and Sizemore). Braun and Miguel Cabrera are 7 and 8. After that I am still fuzzy, though I do not like Howard or Hamilton in the top-10.

1.12 Ian Kinsler - OK, I lied, there actually was someone I was hoping would be available for me and that was indeed Kinsler. Previous to his August sports hernia, he was the MOST VALUABLE player in all of fantasy baseball. The caveat of course is he has played only 120, 131 and 130 games the past 3 seasons -- not the pedigree of a first rounder. The good news is none of the injuries are chronic so while he has missed significant chunks of the past 3 seasons on the DL, he is not as "injury-prone" as others who have missed similar time. therefore, while I will not call the past injuries flukes (2006 - dislocated thumb, 2007 - stress fracture in his foot), there is reasonable hope he shakes the injury bug and plays upwards of 150 games. Also encouraging is he showed last season he is not entirely a product of the favorable Ballpark at Arlington. Healthy, Kinsler is a strong candidate to go .300-20-20 with a ton of runs scored and a decent number of ribbies for a table-setter.

2.04 Lance Berkman - For someone as hot as he was early in the season, some may be disappointed with Berkman's total of "only" 29 homers, but he did slug 46 doubles, considerably more than he did the previous couple of seasons so it may have just been a little bad luck. His excellent walk rate and very good contact rate limits his downside, which is necessary as I incurred some downside risk with Kinsler.

3.12 Ichiro Suzuki - Last March, I let myself be talked out of taking Ichiro on my main event team. While I am not saying I "regret" the decision to bypass him at the 15/16 turn (I named my team Ichi-no as a tribute), I still value him higher than most and will jump all over him in the third round where his ADP seems to be slotting him. His batting average allows you to make up for his lost power with any of a number of .260/25-30 types available at corner or in the outfield.

4.04 Kevin Youkilis - "Youk" as he is affectionately known in Boston (I refuse to call my hometown Beantown as only non-Bostonians refer to it in that manner)has the added bonus of dual 1B/3B eligibility. Truth be told, I think in general he has been over-drafted in the early mocks, going in the 3rd, and while his upside hence profit potential is limited as he does not steal bases and won't hit 40 HR, he is a good bet to break even at this point of the draft and I am still looking to balance some of the risk from going with Kinsler. If you have followed my other teams, I call the 4th round "The Dead Zone" as I have not liked the available hitters. In testament to what I just said about Youk's ADP, he was not available to me in the other drafts at this point -- and those were 12-teamers!!!!

5.12 Adam Dunn - Some will disagree with this selection, but it is a strict by-product of having a serious batting average foundation and the ability to pick up 40 HR is quite nice at the tail end of the 5th round. Dunn was available to me in the 12-teamers referenced above, but I did not feel I had adequate batting average base to take him.

6.04 Ryan Doumit - Just as I do not pre-determine a round to take pitching, I pick a tier and time it accordingly, I am doing the same with catching. My disdain of the back-end of the 2009 catching pool is well documented so I planned on getting someone of quality early. For the record: Martin-3.14, McCann-4.01, Mauer-4.08, Soto-4.11, VMart-5.01. I have Doumit and Soto about even so it was time to jump as there is no way he would have made it to me in the 7th. The other player I considered was Joakim Soria, replacing Jonathan Papelbon in the PAPELBON PLAN I outlined in an earlier post. I knew he would not be there in the 7th for me, but I am more confident finding adequate closers in a bit as opposed to decent catching options.

7.12 John Lackey - He's in my second tier and the second tier is flying off the board as Liriano, Kazmir, Beckett, JShields, Harden, ESantana and Felix have all been drafted since my pick at 6.04.

8.04 Cliff Lee - Regression? Yes. A total collapse? No. At least I don't think so. His K-rate and BB-rate were not flukes, not with that many innings pitched. Even allowing for a small decrease in strikeouts and an uptick in walks with a HR-rate regression to the norm, Lee should warrant his 8th round status.

9.12 Brian Fuentes - I am counting on Fuentes signing on somewhere as closer. His skills are upper-tier worthy.

10.04 Orlando Cabrera - Part of the deal with re-launching Mastersball is I am contractually obligated to draft OCab, as he has been a favorite of myself, Jason and Rob for years. A good portion of that was due to his latent potential to swat double digit homers while stealing 20 bases. The power is now high single digits so I may be higher on him than I should be, but his selection was that of need and I need a SS and another handful of steals.

11.12 Chris Young P - I have talked about Young already, I like his stuff a lot, he just needs to stay on the mound for a full season.

12.04 Bengie Molina - There will be no fishing in the back-end catching cesspool for this guy, welcome Mr. Reliable.

13.12 Placido Polanco - Looking ahead, there are quite a few high power (or high speed) low average types still on the board, so I thought it best to add some batting average reinforcement and fill in my middle infield.

14.04 Derek Lowe - Another site and personal fave, downgraded in many eyes because he is not a flame thrower, but his K-rate is not horrible and he accrues a ton of innings. And I only have to sign him to a 1-year deal.

15.12 Casey Blake - A good example of a decent power, lower average type.

16.04 Manny Corpas - Sort of a gut feeling that Huston Street will be moved, giving Corpas the job, plus he is useful in this format when streaming starting pitching as he has a high K-rate.

17.12 Adam Jones - I have been fairly safe to this point, it is time to take a shot a potential profit pick.

18.04 Randy Johnson - I'm willing to bet with his landing in San Francisco, The Big Unit's ADP is previous to the 18th round.

19.12 Josh Willingham - We are at the fungible portion of the draft. Willingham is coming off an injury-riddled season and is on a new team with playing time a bit in doubt, so he is sliding in early drafts. With 500 AB, he more than earns 19th round value. If he struggles, I replace him.

20.04 Philip Hughes - Total upside pick as starting pitching is as fungible as 5th outfielders at this point of the draft and I like my fairly stable base of starting pitching so I can take some fliers.

21.12 Gary Matthews - Looking for some upside as he is not assured of regular at bats, though the Teixeira to NYY signing helps.

22.04 Jeff Francis - another flier on a guy coming off an injury-filled season.

23.12 Jack Cust - Getting 30 HR this late is fantastic and I should have the batting average to absorb the collateral damage.

24.04 Josh Fields - A possible utility option if I need pop.

25.12 Jamie Moyer - He won't be active all 26 weeks, but can be useful when deployed in favorable 2-start weeks.

26.04 Miguel Batista - Seattle closer? If not, bye-bye.

27.12 Juan Rivera - Hedging my bet with Matthews

28.04 Nick Punto - I have no plausible rationalization for this pick other than I wanted a backup MI and Punto will get full-time at bats.

29.12 Brad Penny - Why not?

30.04 Carlos Villanueva - Gonna be perfectly honest here, I totally spaced on Villanueva as I really like him as a bullpen option even if he does not find his way into the closing role. I probably would have taken him in round 26 had I not been doing an auction in a chat room simultaneous with this draft - oh, I failed to mention that earlier. About round 3, my buddy Jeff Erickson from Rotowire asked me to pinch-hit in their staff auction for their magazine. Good times.

C Doumit, Molina
CI Berkman, Blake, Youkilis (Fields)
MI Kinsler, OCabrera, Polanco (Punto)
OF Suzuki, Dunn, AdJones, Willingham, Matthews (Rivera)
UT Cust

SP Lackey, Lee, CYoung, Lowe, RJohnson, Hughes, Francis (Moyer, Penny)
RP Fuentes, Corpas (Batista, Villanueva)

I see this squad with enough power, but a little short on speed. I'll also need some help with back-end pitching and someone will have to emerge as a solid #2 closer. Where I finish may revolve around how effective I am at finding saves.

What do you think?

Hey Todd, no one cares about your teams but you

Jason and Rob, my old partners and I coined a phrase "No one cares about your team but you." But yet, I have contradicted our own credo and spent two blog entries detailing a couple of "my teams." So here is the explanation as to why I have shared these teams and will continue to share other teams I draft.

The thing to keep in mind when I talk about specific players, player pool observations and strategies is not to focus entirely on the actual analysis, though that is perfectly acceptable fodder for discussion, but rather to apply the more general concept of drawing your own conclusions and mapping out your own means to take advantage of the situation as you see it.

By means of example, I have been opined about how I find the second tier of closers to be shallower than normal, the second tier of starting pitchers to be quite plush, the back end of the catching pool to be a cesspool and how none of the non-catching hitters in rounds 4-6 interest me.

I have then offered how I plan to deal with these observations: taking a top-closer early and taking a top-catcher early.

Again, my fantasy-life is an open book and I welcome all comments, but the take-home message should not be whether you agree or disagree with my personal observations, but rather to keep in mind the building of a team is a puzzle and in order to build the best puzzle, you need to know the player pool inside and out and determine how you can best balance value and stats based upon your personal observations.

That said, I have 2 more teams I will be sharing with you over the next few days. So along with simply sharing who I took, I will do what I can to let you into my head and share why I took that specific player.

On behalf of Gary and myself, HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE!!!

Krause Publications Expert Draft, Todd defends his championship

The following is my recent effort in the Krause Publications Expert Magazine draft. This league gets played out and I am actually the defending champion. The league is a 12-team mixed 5x5 format with standard 23 man rosters, 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. There are no reserves, but players on the MLB DL can be placed on your fantasy DL. Active rosters can be changed once a week with free agent acquisitions done anytime on a first come, first serve basis. For example, if you pick a guy up on Wednesday, he is activated for the following Monday.

I had the second pick in this draft which was very nice considering I had the first pick in the public mock described in previous post. I made the decision to jump on the top catchers in rounds 4-6 if similar to the previous draft I was not enthralled with the available hitters. I also decided to target Jonathan Papelbon and use the idea I described in a previous post in a draft that counts.

The only real change in strategy I used was taking fewer chances on the back end of the pitching staff as with no reserve, they will obviously be active. If available, I would take safe relievers that have the chance to close as streaming 2-start pitchers is a very viable strategy as the season progresses since the pool of available starters is quite plush.

Here we go…

1.02 Jose Reyes – while power is down in general, there is still plenty to be found in a shallow league such as this so I will take the steals.

2.11 Carlos Lee – the first of several names you will see in common with this draft and the public MDC mock. Funny how that happens, but remember I was drafting from a very similar draft position. As mentioned last time, Lee was on his way to a career year and he should be fully recovered from his broken pinkie.

3.02 Brandon Phillips – yup, the same 2 picks I got as in the other draft at the 2/3 turn, but this time I opted for Lee first, figuring Phillips would make it to me in the 3rd. As mentioned in the comments to that post, I like the upside of Phillips as much of last year’s struggles were bad fortune and not a skills regression.

4.11 Russell Martin – as explained, I really do not like the non-catching options and prefer not to go pitching as I want Papelbon next. Brian McCann was off the board so it was Joe Mauer or Martin. I favor Martin’s power-speed combo over Mauer’s batting average.

5.02 Jonathan Papelbon – putting my money where my mouth is. Well, not really my money, let’s see if I do this in an NFBC league.

6.11 Victor Martinez – I still did not like the available hitters and figure V-Mart for a bounce-back season. Plus I could use the power a healthy Martinez should contribute as 3 of my first 4 hitters have a significant steals aspect to their production.

7.02 Roy Oswalt – time to jump in on pitching as the run to the second tier will no doubt take place between now and my next pick. Oswalt’s first half struggles were directly a result of an extremely unlucky HR-rate. Once that stabilized, he was fine and actually reversed a K-rate slide.

8.11 Felix Hernandez – another familiar name common to the previous draft. He still has the same upside he had two days ago.

9.02 Joey Votto – this is pretty late to be taking my first corner, and I think I have a real good one considering the round. Votto won’t challenge for the league lead in homers, but he will hit 20-something with a decent average.

10.11 Alex Gordon – Gordon’s value, especially in a league like this with no reserve, is buoyed a bit by his dual position eligibility. While he has obviously fallen short of the lofty expectations expected as a top-prospect, he is showing signs of getting it and should have 15 HR/15 SB as a baseline, with power upside.

11.02 Brad Hawpe – I need more power and Hawpe is a viable source as he is now the likely clean-up hitter in Coors.

12.11 Ben Sheets – Here’s hoping Big Ben does not sign in Texas. Sheets is the result of the Papelbon Plan, taking on a bit of risk with my SP3. The one drawback is in this format, Sheets can be a problem as he cannot be reserved and is a guy that does not always go on the DL, but misses a start here and has an extra couple rest days there.

13.02 Ted Lilly – a very underrated starter who racks up the strikeouts and has some nice upside if he keeps the walks in check.

14.11 Ryan Theriot – I’m beginning to think I am higher on Theriot than others, but I see a solid .280 - .300 average and 20 SB.

15.02 Derek Lowe – perhaps the perfect starter for this format as he is so consistent and with his GB nature, you aren’t quite as scared if he is going in a favorable hitter’s park and you cannot reserve him.

16.11 Jair Jurrjens – I sense a pretty big dropoff in starting pitching soon but still like the available hitting, especially outfield.

17.02 Mike Cameron – I should have the batting average to cover Cameron and could use a bit more power and speed.

18.11 Paul Konerko – in 12MIX, this corner spot is basically fungible as here will be plenty of chances to find a replacement if Konerko continues his slide and does not bounce back or even level off.

19.02 Brad Ziegler – while some regression is expected, Ziegler should remain a solid reliever and has the chance to close based on his success in the role late last season.

20.11 Willy Taveras – I usually avoid the SB specialist in 12MIX, but I have a hunch there will be power left at the end.

21.02 Billy Butler – another fungible pick at corner with some nice upside as Butler’s power took off in the second half of 2008.

22.11 Chris Ray – if he’s not ready, I put him in the DL and pick up a replacement. If he is healthy, he could close. If he is healthy and does not close, I drop him.

23.01 Jack Cust – and my hunch comes to fruition. While I do not think I will travel the country and preach the Taveras/Cust plan, pairing them in the end game gets you the equivalent of a duo of 15 HR, 25 SB guys with a .250 average in the end game, I’ll take that.

SUMMARY

C Martin, V Martinez
CI Votto, Gordon, Konerko
MI Phillips, Reyes, Theriot
OF C Lee, Hawpe, Cameron, Taveras, Cust
UT Butler
SP Oswalt, F Hernandez, Sheets, Lowe, Lilly, Jurrjens
RP Papelbon, Ziegler, Ray

While it looks like I am light on power, I have several hitters with upside HR potential (Votto, Gordon, Butler) so I should be okay. I will need to fish for saves, but I should have the ratios foundation to take some chances until I happen upon a useful saves provider.

OK, your turn, let me have it…

The Papelbon Plan, Has Todd Gone Mad?

At this point, most everyone realizes that conventional wisdom suggests to hold off on drafting closers or the wisdom would not be, you know, conventional. The reason for this ploy is so many saves become available during the season that it is an inefficient use of resources to expend an early draft pick or a large chunk of your auction budget on saves when you can fortify the category from waivers or free agency as the season progresses.

As with most strategies, they work best when they are the tactic of the minority and not the majority. So when wisdom becomes conventional, it may be time to go back to zigging while everybody else is sagging, hence the unveiling of THE PAPELBON PLAN.

To best explain the Papelbon plan, it is necessary to first describe how I tier the closers. The top-tier is those that have jobs, are not injury-prone and have a history of outstanding ratios and strikeout totals. The next tier has jobs, is not injury prone but has a chink in the skill set. The third tier has the job, but is either injury-prone or inexperienced in the role. The last tier has the job in the mind of the team’s manager, at least for now, but really has it by default as they are the best of a set of relievers devoid of the skill set necessary to succeed in high-pressure situations. Sorry, we’re still in the getting-to-know-each-other phase of the new site, once we are more comfortable, I’ll simply say the fourth tier sucks.

The past few seasons, I have been advocating bypassing the first tier of closers and targeting one or two from the second tier, what I lovingly call the “The Cordero Tier”, named after Francisco and Chad, who exemplified the level of closer I favored. My rationale was that a Cordero had the same probability of leading the league in saves as a Wagner or a Rivera or a Nathan, but for less cost. And I still believe that to be true.

But here is the deal. The aforementioned conventional wisdom has altered the economics of save acquisition. The reason it was so effective to pay less for saves and fortify the category in-season was not everyone was cognizant of the plush supply, hence the demand was low. High supply, low demand – that’s good. But now, the supply of in-season saves is not what it used to be, as the fantasy community has adopted the strategy of cherry-picking the would-be closers and stashing them on reserve. As an aside, I personally think reserve lists are to fantasy baseball as the designated hitter is to real baseball, but that is a story for another day. Okay, back to Economics 101, the supply of in-season saves has depleted, but the demand is high as the inevitable job changes have occurred, forcing owners to start trolling for saves, not to mention all the owners who completely ignored saves at the draft table and are also in the mix for these available saves. Low supply, high demand, that’s bad.

I first noticed this changing economy a couple of years ago, and my reaction was to target the Corderos, or pitchers of similar ilk. It worked out just fine. So why am I about to suggest drafting Jonathan Papelbon? Because the available candidates in the second tier are not nearly as plentiful as previous seasons, and quite frankly, I do not see this changing all that much come the spring. There will always be someone not shy about drafting the upper-tier closers, but I sense more of a battle this season for the limited second tier, reducing my chances of securing the guys I like, especially in a draft as there is a chance I am shut out if I am on the wrong side of a run. So while the zaggers are targeting Francisco Cordero, I will zig and shock the fantasy universe and take Jonathan Papelbon. Well, I would also take Joe Nathan or Joakim Soria, but I like alliterative nicknames.

Anyone who has followed my work over the years realize there must be something else coming, it cannot be as simple as draft Papelbon. As was explained in an earlier post, I consider building a team akin to constructing a puzzle. Adding the Papelbon piece as opposed to the Cordero piece leads to the ability to alter your staff in a couple of different ways as Papelbon’s ratios are so strong. I also break starting pitchers into tiers and the presence of Papelbon effectively jumps a pitcher up a tier, so if you usually draft a top tier starter, you can wait and take someone from the next tier and when combined with Papelbon, you have a top-tier starter and a very good closer. You can also take a riskier starter such as Johnny Cueto or Randy Johnson and have some of the risk mitigated by Papelbon’s stellar ratio foundation. Or you can even alter your strategy to add subsequent closers, as Papelbon can help compensate if you choose a dud in-season.

Earlier I mentioned that I would also do this with Joe Nathan or Joakim Soria as they are the ONLY other relievers I trust enough to pull this off. In early mocks, Papelbon can he taken in round 4 or 5, Nathan in round 5 or 6 and Soria in round 6, 7 or 8. I would not take Nathan in round 4 or Soria earlier than 7, but if they were available later and there was not a great hitting option, I will not hesitate to take one of that trio early.

Once the closer situation fleshes itself out a bit more, I will share my tiering, or perhaps tearing if this Papelbon Plan does not work. But since I have taken Papelbon in multiple drafts so far, I thought it would be a good idea to anticipate the inevitable shrieks of “has Zola gone mad?”

Todd's Team in the first Mock Draft Central public mock draft

The following is a review of a 12-team mixed public mock draft I was invited to participate in by my friends at Mock Draft Central. But before that, one of the great things about now communicating in blog form is I can go tangentially off-topic once in awhile, though truth be told, back on the old Mastersball site, I was blogging before the format was invented in my weekly column entitled “Let Me Speak on This”. Anyway, I just wanted to take a second to express how happy I am that Jason Pliml and Geoff Stein have carved out a successful niche in the industry with their MDC site. Jason had a vision, and combined with the necessary support, patience, ability, demeanor and intuitiveness to carry out his business plan, he now runs a great site, at a time when it was very difficult to make your mark. This was my second year doing their kick-off public mock draft. I really enjoy doing it as if you can’t already tell, I like sharing my opinions and the appeal of this draft is viewers can pose questions to the participants and I am not shy about answering. I don’t tipe vrey well when I am ansrwing questions on the fly, so pleas accept my aplogies, but here is the link to the chat transcript that took place during the draft:

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2009_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_transcript_1.jsp

And here is a link to a podcast with Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco doing the commentary:

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasybaseballguy/2008/12/16/Fantasy-Baseball-EXPERT-Mockdraft-1

Okay, without further ado, from the 1-hole…

1.01 Hanley Ramirez: It is rare one gets to take the first overall pick and still have the potential for UPSIDE, but such is the case with Ramirez. I am leery about a drop in power as well as tempering steals if he remains batting third all season, but a baseline of .300-25-100-100-35 from a shortstop is well-deserved of the top pick. This leaves him an upside of 10 HR and 15-20 SB. I’ll take it.

2.12 Brandon Phillips: While I have not crunched the 2009 numbers yet, it is my expectation that the effect most call positional scarcity is minimal, but yet still existent in the 12-team mixed format so I am quite pleased to be able to fill my 2B/SS without having to reach for either player. Phillips had a down 2008 as compared to the previous season, but there are sufficient signs that it was as much bad luck as anything, the skills are still very much intact, so I expect a bounce back campaign.

3.01 Carlos Lee: .314-28-100 is a career year for many; Lee did it in only 115 games. There is no reason to expect any lingering effects from his fractured pinkie and at 32, his skills should not yet be in decline.

4.12 Shane Victorino: I am going to be completely honest; I am not enamored with this pick. It is justifiable, but in retrospect, I wish I had gone in another direction, which I ended up doing in another draft, details to follow. Basically, I am calling the 4th and 5th rounds “the dead zone” as there are no hitters that really stand out and I have not yet refined my player pool analysis to favor one position over another. As such, I called upon my resistance to chase a stolen base specialist in 12-team mixed drafts and took Victorino, so I would also get double digit homers with my 35+ steals. This should allow me to accrue ample stolen bases without needing to take a Willy Taveras or Michael Bourn type and I was fairly certain Victorino would not make it back to me at the 6/7 swing.

5.01 Jonathan Papelbon: I am going to save the analysis of this pick for its own posting, as I am going to introduce what I affectionately call “The Papelbon Plan” into the fantasy baseball vernacular.

6.12 Rafael Furcal: A healthy Furcal is historically a 3rd or 4th round selection, but he slipped because he is coming off of a back injury, and once you hurt your back, you are forever considered injury prone. There is also some residual hesitation as many felt as though they were burned by Furcal last season with the frequent reports of his imminent return, only to be saddled with a zero for the week as he was not activated. That said, he looked great in the playoffs and as a free agent, his medical reports could be requested by any organization and he was aggressively courted by multiple teams, so that is a good sign with respect to his health.

7.01 Jermaine Dye: Pretty much a pick based on needs, specifically power as Dye should continue to knock 30-something out of the yard.

8.12 Felix Hernandez: The King’s selection was buoyed by the Papelbon Plan. As will be explained, it did not HAVE to be Hernandez, just a pitcher of his ilk. The good thing is he has some untapped potential over and above what is to be expected out of a pitcher taken at this point. If he can get his walk rate back to 2006 and 2007 levels, the improving Seattle defense should benefit his hits allowed on balls in play, pushing him into the lower portion of the top-tier of starting pitchers.

9.01 Carlos Pena: Power still needed to be addressed and I was quite pleased to welcome Pena to the fold, albeit with some trepidation as my batting average would now be at a little risk if either Ramirez or Phillips has an off-year.

10.12 Ricky Nolasco: With apologies to Neil Diamond, “I’m a Believer”. The Monkees may have covered it, but trust me, Diamond wrote it. Anyway, there is definitely some cause for concern as Nolasco pitched 212.3 innings following a lost 2007 where he was shelved with elbow issues working only 55 innings in the Majors and Minors. His K/BB is excellent, though as a fly ball pitcher, he is prone to the long ball.

11.01 Chris Young: I’m a believer, part 2. I probably should refrain from drafting Young to gauge how others slot his value. When healthy, I believe Young has the goods to be a top-10 fantasy performer. The issue is health and goes beyond the horrific accidental line drive he took to the face off the bat of Albert Pujols.

12.12 Bengie Molina: As a teaser to what I did in subsequent drafts in the “Dead Zone”, I am not thrilled with the back-end catching options as opposed to previous seasons where I always seem to have a few guys I like late. As such, it was time to draft the requisite Molina, and I was fortunate enough to get the best of the bunch. Bengie should help bolster my fledgling batting average as well as chip in with some welcome pop.

13.01 Mike Napoli: Napoli is going to be the sexy catcher pick come the spring. He has 20+ HR potential and will swipe some bases. His average is volatile, but last year he was a victim of bad luck, hence the real low mark.

14.12 Matt Capps: Pretty much a classic Zola pick – a middle tier closer with the job. Capps can get anywhere from 25 to 40 saves and I would not be surprised. But he has the job, though he is a candidate to be moved to a team that would use him as a set-up guy.

15.01 Alex Gordon: Showing signs of finally reaching the potential many predicted and the dual 1B/3b eligibility is nice. In addition, the recent focus on power means a little more help in steals is needed, and Gordon will swipe 15 or so.

16.12 Paul Konerko: Screw batting average. While Konerko is on a 4 year tailspin, he is probably at the point where the production levels, if not improve a tick over last season.

17.01 Nick Swisher: Truth be told, these back-to-back picks of declining cornerman was an effort to hit on one of the two, figuring corner and/or outfield is plush enough a position to backfill from waivers.

18.12 Jair Jurrjens: There is no truth to the rumor that Jurrjens has requested a restraining order from me. As the saying goes, what’s not to like? An acceptable K/BB and he keeps the ball in the yard, the perfect recipe for a 4th or 5th fantasy starter.

19.01 Randy Johnson: Why not? Pitchers at this point are fungible and I am treating the draft like you have the ability to shift players on and off a reserve list.

20.12 David Dejesus: Basically looking to add some batting average while still adding something to the counting stats. Not flashy, but solid. Though, come to think of it, why didn’t I take the poster boy for this description, Randy Winn?

21.01 Ryan Theriot: Theriot is being undervalued, or maybe I am overvaluing him, as I see a decent batting average and 20 SB from shortstop. You’ll see his name a lot in the next few days as I review other teams.

22.12 Jeremy Guthrie: Guthrie is one of those guys that many avoid as his K-rate is not to the level most like, but has had a string of successful seasons because of a low hit rate, sort of like Jon Garland a few years ago. If Guthrie has been lucky and struggles, I will drop him.

23.01 Manny Corpas: Obviously, closing speculation is very difficult in December, but Corpas has the skill set to be useful even if he doesn’t close as he can be used during weeks the starting pitcher matchups are not attractive.

SUMMARY:

C B Molina, Napoli
1B/3B Pena, Gordon, Konerko
2B/SS Phillips, Reyes, Furcal
OF C Lee, Victorino, Dye, Dejesus, Swisher
UT Theriot
SP F Hernandez, Nolasco, C Young, Jurrjens, R Johnson, Guthrie
RP Papelbon, Capps, Corpas

Your turn, what do you think?

Mocking the mocks -- Todd's Drafting Strategy

‘Tis the season. - no, not the holiday season, the other season, mock drafting season. And as the saying goes, if you can’t join them, mock them --- or something like that. It comes with the territory, accept an invitation to an expert mock and be prepared to be mocked. Get ready to have your credentials questions and brace for the inevitable “I dare you to join my league” requests.

Here is the problem – those that look at mocks view them in a myopic manner, focusing on individual picks they feel go too early, or question how a player they like can go so late. What they ignore is the fact we are building a team, not producing a top-300 list. Each draft has its own personality, punctuated by a unique ebb and flow. Isolated picks cannot be judged in a vacuum. The pick must be considered as a single piece of a larger puzzle.

I had the pleasure of participating in four drafts this past week and I would like to share the results with you, or at least as much as I can get away with as a couple were for industry publications and as such I need to respect the fact that others are paying for the information. But before I post the actual results, I want to review my general drafting philosophy as it has significantly altered over the years.

One of my first analytical studies with the original Mastersball site was looking at a typical draft pool to investigate the concept of positional scarcity and apply that to drafting strategy. What I did was take end-of-the-season values and assign the top ranked player to TEAM 1, the second ranked to TEAM 2, etc., filling out a standard 23-man roster for 12 squads. As long as the team had a legal roster spot available, I assigned the highest remaining player to the team “on-the-clock”. If there was not a legal spot, I moved down the list until the player legally fit. What I found was I rarely had to skip more than a couple of places to find a qualifying player. My conclusion was positional value was aptly distributed throughout the draft-worthy pool so you do not have to reach for a scarce position early. There are ample players left at the end to fill the scarce spots.

So I put my money where my mouth was and entered the World Championship of Fantasy Baseball, a high-stakes contest that has since folded, but whose place was effectively taken by the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, an entity you will become very familiar with as I am an avid participant. Anyway, using my “take one off the top” philosophy, I had five outfielders and my utility by the end of round eight (pause for laughter). It did not take me long to realize my strategy needed some tweaking. Okay, it needed a complete overhaul.

What I failed to account for was my experiment utilized fixed values. We all value players differently and we all have our own drafting strategies. What this does is render a player pool that features a bunch of players that only we like at the end. Putting it in terms of dollar values, a player drafted in the last few rounds is akin to an end-gamer, one that will cost a buck or two in an auction. In the aforementioned draft, I became nauseous seeing others scoop up outfielders I had pegged as $6 or $7 players with their last pick, while I was taking the scrubbiest of $1 middle infielders. So the first adjustment I made was to always have a couple of outfield spots available late.

The next revelation I made was observing a very interesting phenomena with respect to how value lays out in a typical draft. I will expand on this concept as part of the upcoming Draft Kit, but the primary principle is if you graph a draft plotting each round pick using pick number versus expected value earned, you find a significant slope in the first round, a lesser slope in the second, and even lesser slope in the third, but then each round was fundamentally flat, where the difference in value between consecutive players was well within the margin of error associated with player valuation. In other words, there really is no “most valuable” player left on the board, there are several players with basically the same value. The point being, there really is no difference between a $19 player and a $17 player, or a $9 player and an $8 player. How they fit into the overall scheme of your team is far more important that the few cents of value.

This epiphany resulted into my adopting a tiered approach to drafting. I purposely say adopt and not develop as I was by no means the first employ this tactic, though I do believe I was the first to graphically display rounds in terms of value. The key of the tiered approach is to identify an area where you expect several players of the same position or same categorical contribution to be picked. The idea is you can target a player from that group, enabling a player from a different position or skill to be taken during a spot where you do not observe a viable tier. Practically speaking, perhaps you anticipate being able to pick a viable second baseman in round 8 as there are 4 or 5 that you figure will be available at value at that point. Now let’s say you were unable to find a tier to target a third baseman anywhere in the draft. When you pick in the 4th round, the top-ranked player is a second baseman, but there is a third baseman a couple spots away. The tiered approach dictates bypassing on the “more valuable” second baseman and sliding to the “less valuable” third baseman. The same idea can be applied to categories. Say you feel there is a plethora of cheap power late. Your tiers point towards an outfielder in the 3rd or 4th round. The top outfielder on the board is a power hitter, but a couple of spots down are Jacoby Ellsbury or Shane Victorino. The play here is to shun the power and get the speed, even at the expense of some raw value, as you can pick up a $9 power outfielder at the end but not a $9 speedster.

Now is the part that I did develop, or at minimum, I had not seen discussed previously. The ultimate strategy goes beyond just tiered drafting. You need to combine the tiered approach with anticipating the composition of the players available towards the end of the draft and make sure you have the necessary slots open to best take advantage of your sleepers, or whatever you want to call them. Remember that buck or so you sacrificed by skipping to the less valuable third baseman? You can more than make that up in the end by taking the $9 cornerman or $10 outfielder with your last pick, BUT ONLY IF YOU HAVE THE AVAILABLE SPOT!!!!

There is another element of drafting that must enter into the equation, namely balance. It is not entirely about value, but how you piece the value into a balanced squad. You need to balance the positions as already discussed. You need to balance hitting versus pitching. You also need to balance power versus speed and starting pitching versus closers. You are weaving an intricate web that goes well beyond “taking one from the top.”

Let’s bring this back to “mocking the mock.” Looking at an isolated pick is not fair if it was purposely made in context with the big picture. So instead of questioning a particular player in a particular spot, take the time to look at the team as a whole and look for the strength and weaknesses. Then go and see if that can be traced to a pick you consider being a mistake. And finally, figure out what you would have done differently, based on the ensuing action. Trust me, it is a lot more useful than calling out a ‘so-called’ expert. Though admittedly, it might not be as fun.

Next I will start unveiling the intricate webs I spent the week weaving.

As always, comments are encouraged and I will do my best to stop back and address them. And if you have not read the welcome message yet, I respectfully urge that you take a couple of minutes to check it out.

Todd's Thoughts on the #1 Pick

Last Monday night, I was invited to participate in what was advertised as a Public Expert Draft over at Mock Draft Central. Anyone familiar with my work over the years likely knows I am not a fan of the term “expert”. I prefer to consider Monday’s exercise as a Showcase Draft, or perhaps Industry Draft. The mock format was 12-team mixed, with the standard 14-hitters and 9-pitchers roster. It assumed standard 5x5 scoring. It is not going to be played out, which is important when you study some of these winter mocks, as some are played out regularly, with weekly transactions, acquisition, etc. and some are scored as draft and hold leagues, where the standings are calculated based on the stats accrued by your players with no transactions all season. For some, this alters the strategy. I treated the draft as if it would be played out, since I would be drafting to defend my Krause Publications Experts League championship later in the week, and the format is exactly the same. In fact, in the public mock, I had the first pick and in the Krause draft, I had the second pick so I can possibly use some of what happens early to help plot my strategy for the draft that counts.

I will post an entire rundown of my drafts (I actually have 5 of them this week) over the course of the week, but since I have the first and second pick on these pair of drafts, I thought it might be fun to share my initial mode of thinking with respect to the top overall player for 2009. In general, in order for a player to be at the top of my rankings, he needs to display two specific characteristics. First, he must have a long enough of a track record so that an extremely high baseline level of performance is reasonably expected. Second, he must have significant upside in at least one category. Keep in mind that it is extremely difficult for a top-tier player to have upside, over and above their anticipated stellar level of performance. As of now, I count 6 players that have a legitimate argument for the top spot. Let’s go through them, in no particular order.

ALEX RODRIGUEZ

PLUSES – Long track record of success. No major injury concerns. Even his “off years” are pretty danged good.

MINUSES – Is getting a bit older, so his upside in the steals category is not what it used to be. Also strikes out more than most people realize, so his batting average can fluctuate if he runs into some misfortune.

OUTLOOK – My favorite reason for arguing that A-Rod should be the top overall pick is that while he may not be the highest earner when all is said and done, he is the least likely player to be a total bust. Maybe the best way of stating it is that he is the safest top pick, but no longer has the upside to be the runaway value leader anymore.

HANLEY RAMIREZ

PLUSES – Incredible power-speed combination with a history of maintaining an excellent batting average. Plays shortstop, and though positional scarcity is not nearly as significant of a factor as in past years, with equal statistics, I will take the middle infield qualifier over the cornerman or outfielder.

MINUSES – While he does have a multi-year history of success, it is not quite as long as some of his competition for the top spot. Though he should be fine with respect to health, he had shoulder surgery in the 2007 off-season and also ended the season with some soreness in his shoulder, so that is a slight concern. In addition, anyone so dependent on speed for his value comes with the built-in “if he hurts his legs he won’t run” risk.

OUTLOOK – There are a couple of yellow caution flags in Ramirez’ numbers. First, he has historically hit MUCH better at leadoff than in the 3-hole, where he is slated to begin the season with Cameron Maybin occupying the spot at the top of the Marlin order. There are a couple of ways to look at this, which in fact boils down to the classic numbers versus scouting argument. The sample of at bats hitting third is limited as compared to leadoff, so the sabrmetrician will call it noise. I have talked to some that insist Ramirez changes his approach when hitting down in the order, and this adjustment, at least so far, has been detrimental. As a numbers guy, my lean is to the former, especially since if there is anything to the latter, over time he will either re-adjust or be moved back to leadoff, especially since Maybin is far from a sure-thing to keep the role. Second, Hanley’s HR output increased last season as a result of a huge spike in HF/FB. In fact, this countered his hitting fewer fly balls in general. There is a better chance that his HR/FB regresses than his FB% increases, so a drop in power is likely.

JOSE REYES

PLUSES – Capable of pilfering over 70 bags though he only needs 50 or so to warrant the top spot. Has shown the ability to hit in the high teens homers, which is his upside category. Durable and at the top of a powerful Mets lineup, so he will enjoy well over 700 plate appearances, and has really improved his pitch selection from when he first came up.

MINUSES – Though he has some power upside, Reyes is the most one-dimensional player of the candidates as he is most reliant on his speed.

OUTLOOK – It is okay, you no longer have to hold your breath every time Reyes takes off, the possibility of popping a hamstring is no greater or worse than any other player, as he has played in 161, 153, 160 and 159 games the past 4 seasons. An area Reyes has some untapped upside is batting average, as he has a low BABIP for someone so fast.

ALBERT PUJOLS

PLUSES – When healthy, Pujols is one of only a small handful of players that is a legitimate threat to win the Triple Crown. His combination of plate discipline, contact rate and power is unmatched. And for a big guy, Pujols is a smart baserunner, capable of a few steals over the course of a season.

MINUSES – Even though he has the ability to swipe some bases, Pujols will never be confused with a burner so his SB upside is limited, so much so that the 16 he swiped in 2005 is probably going to be his career high. But more importantly, Pujols has a very public issue with his elbow, and even though he had off-season surgery to clean it up a bit, there is a risk he does some serious damage that may result in his requiring the dreaded Tommy John Surgery.

OUTLOOK – If it were not for the elbow issue, speed be damned, Pujols would be the clear-cut choice at #1. I will let you in on a little secret – I did not take Pujols in either of the two drafts. But I would take him somewhere in the top-6, as opposed to last season where I bypassed an opportunity to secure his services with the 15th and 16th picks in my Main Event NFBC draft.

DAVID WRIGHT

PLUSES – Remarkably consistent with good plate discipline and maintains a very high BABIP.

MINUSES – His strength is his consistency as his upside is limited in all the categories except stolen bases. Two years ago, Wright stole 34 bags, probably instilling unreasonable expectations into the fantasy community. It is not that he is not capable of matching or even approaching that total, it is more that running is not his primary asset, and he is not assured of having so many opportunities to take off anytime soon.

OUTLOOK – Wright is similar to A-Rod in that his level of risk with respect to having a solid season is minimal, but he does not have the power ceiling Rodriguez does, though at this point, he has the chance to steal more bases. An argument can be made that if you are a risk averse player, having the #4 or #5 pick and selecting Wright is more your style than having the top pick and choosing one of the higher risk, higher reward types.

GRADY SIZEMORE

PLUSES – Still maturing, has upside across the board. His sole risky category is batting average, which can sometimes be elevated simply by good fortune. If only 5 warning track fly balls hit or go over the fence, that is another 10 points of batting average. If he decreases his strikeouts by 20 and puts the ball in play 20 more times, that’s another 10-15 points.

MINUSES – Strictly batting average related, as he fans too many times to be projected to maintain a .300 average.


OUTLOOK – Teaser: The Neuts LOVE Sizemore. What are the Neuts? You’ll find out soon enough, but suffice it to say Sizemore is a great bet to continue to grow in skills. If he hits .300, he has the potential to be the #1 overall player. If you do not mind risk, targeting Sizemore at #6 and getting a better pick in the second round may be a better option that taking someone else #1 and waiting until the last pick in the second round for your next one.

So, who did I take?

Check back later and I will tell you. In the meantime, please feel free to comment below.

Welcome Message from Todd Zola

On behalf of my partner Gary Jennison, we would like to welcome you to the re-launch of Mastersball. For our friends returning from the original site, it is great to see you again. To those not familiar with the initial incarnation of the site, welcome and we will give you a little history in a minute.

But first, I must thank a few people. Not only were Jason Grey and Rob Leibowitz two of the greatest business partners a guy can have, they are even better friends and graciously support my bringing back the Mastersball brand name – thanks guys, you are the best. Next, I would like to thank CREATiVE SPORTS, led by my good buddy, Lawr Michaels and his great crew, JP Kastner, Brian Walton and Marc Meltzer. Mastersball and CREATiVE SPORTS are going to have a very symbiotic association where we share some resources and push each other to great heights in an effort to better serve you, the fantasy consumer. I would also like to thank Gary Jennison for trusting me and agreeing to be my partner in this next phase of my fantasy journey. In addition, I owe a debt of gratitude to the Fantasy Planet management team of Craig Davis and Ryan Brooks, a couple of stand-up professionals who made my time working with them quite enjoyable, and to my good friend Perry Van Hook who remains with Fantasy Planet. Good luck Captain, except for when we square off in the Las Vegas NFBC AL Auction. And finally, I would like to thank you for either coming back or stopping by to see what the fuss is all about. Gary and I promise to do our best to keep you coming back again and again. This feels a little like Paul McCartney calling his new band the Beatles and not the Wings, especially since Paul McCartney and Wings were my first favorite band as a pre-teenager.

Now I will share some background. In 1996, I joined a private AL-only auction keeper league called the El Torito League, composed mostly of college pals from Northeastern University and their friends. I was an outsider, finding the league from an Internet advertisement. After a prolonged trade discussion ended with my not succumbing to the whims of long-time league member Jason Grey, he called and asked if I would be interested in contributing to a Fantasy Baseball web site he was putting together called Mastersball. I accepted and adopted the moniker of “The Professor”, writing a weekly strategy column entitled “Lessons from the Professor.” The site quickly began earning notoriety in the fantasy baseball community. A couple of years later, we brought on our pal Rob Leibowitz, who was the founder and operator of Rotoheaven.com. The three of us grew Mastersball into a highly respected web site. Along the way, we recruited Perry Van Hook and Gary Jennison to be on our staff. As a quintet we developed an avid and loyal following, punctuated by a forum community that may not have been the biggest, but we certainly considered them to be the best.

After the 2005 season, Mastersball LLC was approached by Fantasy Planet and we agreed to become the information provider for their baseball operation. Along the way, Jason and Rob both left the LLC to pursue other opportunities, leaving me to be the sole survivor of the Mastersball troika. At the conclusion of the 2008 season, Craig Davis, Ryan Brooks and I had an honest and open talk and we mutually and quite amicably agreed that ending our 3-year business relationship was best for both parties, leaving me free to pursue my own interests.

At this point, I harkened back to another of my favorite bands, Rush, and recalled their lyric I used as my High School yearbook quote, “You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill, I will choose a path that’s clear, I will choose free will.” So free will it is, thus Mastersball is back.

I talked with Gary, and we agreed to partner on this venture. Gary is on the verge of carving out a special niche in projection theory, much as I have done and will strive to continue to do in the realm of valuation and game theory. Together, we make a strong team, and even though we share many of the same philosophies, there is definitely a certain level of Yin and Yang present to keep things fresh and interesting as we grow as a unit and a site.

Okay, enough of the history, if you are still reading, you are likely wondering a few things – what is the new site going to be like and when is it going to happen? And who is your favorite band now?

The new Mastersball is going to be a little different than the original. We surveyed the current fantasy landscape and found a plethora of places to obtain “current-event” information like news, injury updates, depth charts, etc. While this information is obviously integral to running a successful fantasy team, I recalled something Jason once said to me while we were enjoying a delectable sandwich between Arizona Fall League games. When I asked him what he wanted me to work on over the winter, his reply was succinct yet powerful as he simply said to think of what I would want from a site if I was a paying customer, and do that. When I shared this story with Gary, it soon became clear what we needed to do. And thus, for our paying subscribers, we are going to supply a bevy of unique tools that will have you as prepared as anyone in your league for your auction or draft. We will have accompanying essays that will explain our methodologies, both in terms of projection and valuation theory. You will also get strategic essays tying everything together. And in season, you will get rest-of-year performance projections and year-to-date values and rankings updated at least once a week. Oh yeah, I failed to mention that we will project over 2000 players, all the way from 46-year old Jamie Moyer to those toiling in Double-A. I told you Gary was on the verge of something special.

We will also have a plethora of information available for free. Along with this interactive blog, which Gary and I will update frequently, with your help, we are going to do all we can to build a message forum community like we had with the original site. I cannot tell you how many ideas have been born out of message board discussions. Actually, that is how I got to respect and become a fan of my partner, then known as longduckdong. Additionally, we will offer a free nightly newsletter, highlighted by a quantitative ranking of the next day’s probable starting pitchers, perfect for those playing in the ever-growing daily transaction sector of the hobby.

We are still working on a firm date when we will fully launch with sign-up capabilities and the message forum. The loose target is sometime between January 15 and when pitchers and catchers report. Going forward we will be amongst the first sites to provide you with the best fantasy tools available on the Internet, but we are not only preparing the tools and accompanying information, we are also putting in place the infrastructure to support such an endeavor. And as I am sure you are aware, this does take time so we are presently being a bit conservative with our official full-launch date.

But in the meantime, Gary and I will do what we can to update this blog. We encourage your comments as the intent is for this to be interactive. And if you want to contact me, feel free to e-mail me at todd@mastersball.com.

Damn, I cannot express how great it feels to have that address back!!! Hop on board, it is going to be one heck of a ride.