The Papelbon Plan, Has Todd Gone Mad?

At this point, most everyone realizes that conventional wisdom suggests to hold off on drafting closers or the wisdom would not be, you know, conventional. The reason for this ploy is so many saves become available during the season that it is an inefficient use of resources to expend an early draft pick or a large chunk of your auction budget on saves when you can fortify the category from waivers or free agency as the season progresses.

As with most strategies, they work best when they are the tactic of the minority and not the majority. So when wisdom becomes conventional, it may be time to go back to zigging while everybody else is sagging, hence the unveiling of THE PAPELBON PLAN.

To best explain the Papelbon plan, it is necessary to first describe how I tier the closers. The top-tier is those that have jobs, are not injury-prone and have a history of outstanding ratios and strikeout totals. The next tier has jobs, is not injury prone but has a chink in the skill set. The third tier has the job, but is either injury-prone or inexperienced in the role. The last tier has the job in the mind of the team’s manager, at least for now, but really has it by default as they are the best of a set of relievers devoid of the skill set necessary to succeed in high-pressure situations. Sorry, we’re still in the getting-to-know-each-other phase of the new site, once we are more comfortable, I’ll simply say the fourth tier sucks.

The past few seasons, I have been advocating bypassing the first tier of closers and targeting one or two from the second tier, what I lovingly call the “The Cordero Tier”, named after Francisco and Chad, who exemplified the level of closer I favored. My rationale was that a Cordero had the same probability of leading the league in saves as a Wagner or a Rivera or a Nathan, but for less cost. And I still believe that to be true.

But here is the deal. The aforementioned conventional wisdom has altered the economics of save acquisition. The reason it was so effective to pay less for saves and fortify the category in-season was not everyone was cognizant of the plush supply, hence the demand was low. High supply, low demand – that’s good. But now, the supply of in-season saves is not what it used to be, as the fantasy community has adopted the strategy of cherry-picking the would-be closers and stashing them on reserve. As an aside, I personally think reserve lists are to fantasy baseball as the designated hitter is to real baseball, but that is a story for another day. Okay, back to Economics 101, the supply of in-season saves has depleted, but the demand is high as the inevitable job changes have occurred, forcing owners to start trolling for saves, not to mention all the owners who completely ignored saves at the draft table and are also in the mix for these available saves. Low supply, high demand, that’s bad.

I first noticed this changing economy a couple of years ago, and my reaction was to target the Corderos, or pitchers of similar ilk. It worked out just fine. So why am I about to suggest drafting Jonathan Papelbon? Because the available candidates in the second tier are not nearly as plentiful as previous seasons, and quite frankly, I do not see this changing all that much come the spring. There will always be someone not shy about drafting the upper-tier closers, but I sense more of a battle this season for the limited second tier, reducing my chances of securing the guys I like, especially in a draft as there is a chance I am shut out if I am on the wrong side of a run. So while the zaggers are targeting Francisco Cordero, I will zig and shock the fantasy universe and take Jonathan Papelbon. Well, I would also take Joe Nathan or Joakim Soria, but I like alliterative nicknames.

Anyone who has followed my work over the years realize there must be something else coming, it cannot be as simple as draft Papelbon. As was explained in an earlier post, I consider building a team akin to constructing a puzzle. Adding the Papelbon piece as opposed to the Cordero piece leads to the ability to alter your staff in a couple of different ways as Papelbon’s ratios are so strong. I also break starting pitchers into tiers and the presence of Papelbon effectively jumps a pitcher up a tier, so if you usually draft a top tier starter, you can wait and take someone from the next tier and when combined with Papelbon, you have a top-tier starter and a very good closer. You can also take a riskier starter such as Johnny Cueto or Randy Johnson and have some of the risk mitigated by Papelbon’s stellar ratio foundation. Or you can even alter your strategy to add subsequent closers, as Papelbon can help compensate if you choose a dud in-season.

Earlier I mentioned that I would also do this with Joe Nathan or Joakim Soria as they are the ONLY other relievers I trust enough to pull this off. In early mocks, Papelbon can he taken in round 4 or 5, Nathan in round 5 or 6 and Soria in round 6, 7 or 8. I would not take Nathan in round 4 or Soria earlier than 7, but if they were available later and there was not a great hitting option, I will not hesitate to take one of that trio early.

Once the closer situation fleshes itself out a bit more, I will share my tiering, or perhaps tearing if this Papelbon Plan does not work. But since I have taken Papelbon in multiple drafts so far, I thought it would be a good idea to anticipate the inevitable shrieks of “has Zola gone mad?”