The following is my recent effort in the Krause Publications Expert Magazine draft. This league gets played out and I am actually the defending champion. The league is a 12-team mixed 5x5 format with standard 23 man rosters, 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. There are no reserves, but players on the MLB DL can be placed on your fantasy DL. Active rosters can be changed once a week with free agent acquisitions done anytime on a first come, first serve basis. For example, if you pick a guy up on Wednesday, he is activated for the following Monday.
I had the second pick in this draft which was very nice considering I had the first pick in the public mock described in previous post. I made the decision to jump on the top catchers in rounds 4-6 if similar to the previous draft I was not enthralled with the available hitters. I also decided to target Jonathan Papelbon and use the idea I described in a previous post in a draft that counts.
The only real change in strategy I used was taking fewer chances on the back end of the pitching staff as with no reserve, they will obviously be active. If available, I would take safe relievers that have the chance to close as streaming 2-start pitchers is a very viable strategy as the season progresses since the pool of available starters is quite plush.
Here we go…
1.02 Jose Reyes – while power is down in general, there is still plenty to be found in a shallow league such as this so I will take the steals.
2.11 Carlos Lee – the first of several names you will see in common with this draft and the public MDC mock. Funny how that happens, but remember I was drafting from a very similar draft position. As mentioned last time, Lee was on his way to a career year and he should be fully recovered from his broken pinkie.
3.02 Brandon Phillips – yup, the same 2 picks I got as in the other draft at the 2/3 turn, but this time I opted for Lee first, figuring Phillips would make it to me in the 3rd. As mentioned in the comments to that post, I like the upside of Phillips as much of last year’s struggles were bad fortune and not a skills regression.
4.11 Russell Martin – as explained, I really do not like the non-catching options and prefer not to go pitching as I want Papelbon next. Brian McCann was off the board so it was Joe Mauer or Martin. I favor Martin’s power-speed combo over Mauer’s batting average.
5.02 Jonathan Papelbon – putting my money where my mouth is. Well, not really my money, let’s see if I do this in an NFBC league.
6.11 Victor Martinez – I still did not like the available hitters and figure V-Mart for a bounce-back season. Plus I could use the power a healthy Martinez should contribute as 3 of my first 4 hitters have a significant steals aspect to their production.
7.02 Roy Oswalt – time to jump in on pitching as the run to the second tier will no doubt take place between now and my next pick. Oswalt’s first half struggles were directly a result of an extremely unlucky HR-rate. Once that stabilized, he was fine and actually reversed a K-rate slide.
8.11 Felix Hernandez – another familiar name common to the previous draft. He still has the same upside he had two days ago.
9.02 Joey Votto – this is pretty late to be taking my first corner, and I think I have a real good one considering the round. Votto won’t challenge for the league lead in homers, but he will hit 20-something with a decent average.
10.11 Alex Gordon – Gordon’s value, especially in a league like this with no reserve, is buoyed a bit by his dual position eligibility. While he has obviously fallen short of the lofty expectations expected as a top-prospect, he is showing signs of getting it and should have 15 HR/15 SB as a baseline, with power upside.
11.02 Brad Hawpe – I need more power and Hawpe is a viable source as he is now the likely clean-up hitter in Coors.
12.11 Ben Sheets – Here’s hoping Big Ben does not sign in Texas. Sheets is the result of the Papelbon Plan, taking on a bit of risk with my SP3. The one drawback is in this format, Sheets can be a problem as he cannot be reserved and is a guy that does not always go on the DL, but misses a start here and has an extra couple rest days there.
13.02 Ted Lilly – a very underrated starter who racks up the strikeouts and has some nice upside if he keeps the walks in check.
14.11 Ryan Theriot – I’m beginning to think I am higher on Theriot than others, but I see a solid .280 - .300 average and 20 SB.
15.02 Derek Lowe – perhaps the perfect starter for this format as he is so consistent and with his GB nature, you aren’t quite as scared if he is going in a favorable hitter’s park and you cannot reserve him.
16.11 Jair Jurrjens – I sense a pretty big dropoff in starting pitching soon but still like the available hitting, especially outfield.
17.02 Mike Cameron – I should have the batting average to cover Cameron and could use a bit more power and speed.
18.11 Paul Konerko – in 12MIX, this corner spot is basically fungible as here will be plenty of chances to find a replacement if Konerko continues his slide and does not bounce back or even level off.
19.02 Brad Ziegler – while some regression is expected, Ziegler should remain a solid reliever and has the chance to close based on his success in the role late last season.
20.11 Willy Taveras – I usually avoid the SB specialist in 12MIX, but I have a hunch there will be power left at the end.
21.02 Billy Butler – another fungible pick at corner with some nice upside as Butler’s power took off in the second half of 2008.
22.11 Chris Ray – if he’s not ready, I put him in the DL and pick up a replacement. If he is healthy, he could close. If he is healthy and does not close, I drop him.
23.01 Jack Cust – and my hunch comes to fruition. While I do not think I will travel the country and preach the Taveras/Cust plan, pairing them in the end game gets you the equivalent of a duo of 15 HR, 25 SB guys with a .250 average in the end game, I’ll take that.
SUMMARY
C Martin, V Martinez
CI Votto, Gordon, Konerko
MI Phillips, Reyes, Theriot
OF C Lee, Hawpe, Cameron, Taveras, Cust
UT Butler
SP Oswalt, F Hernandez, Sheets, Lowe, Lilly, Jurrjens
RP Papelbon, Ziegler, Ray
While it looks like I am light on power, I have several hitters with upside HR potential (Votto, Gordon, Butler) so I should be okay. I will need to fish for saves, but I should have the ratios foundation to take some chances until I happen upon a useful saves provider.
OK, your turn, let me have it…
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
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2 comments:
Give me a better closer in round 14 and I think you did a very good job here. The Riot is an ok middle infielder, but he doesn't justify his draft slot in a 12 team format. I bet there were solid options at closer when you drafted him.
Excellent comment Fever Pitch. As alluded to in my analysis, I am definitely over-rating Theriot who I took with the 167th pick. Qualls -168, Gonzalez-171, Morrow-85, Hanrahan-192, Hoffman-216 were all on the board.
I tool Ziegler at 218. Available MI were Renteria-225, Greene-229, Polanco-245 as well as guys like Matsui, Bartlett, A Cabrera later.
I actually think Qualls is going to get and keep the job, so he would have been a better fit at the 14th round, then I could have gone Bartlett/Matsui for steals or Polanco for average.
The good thing is this mistake is easily fixable as waiver pickups are first-come, first-serve so I should be able to snake in and get at least 2 closers "real time" as an announcement is made, someone gets hurt, etc.
Thanks for the insight.
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